I have maintained for some time that the apparent conflict between the United States and Russia, previously the Soviet Union, is largely notional. American interests have been present in the region since 1917, and in many respects, they persist to this day. The disagreements between these powers often appear to be performative rather than substantive – a form of political theatre. Unfortunately, many have accepted this narrative, resulting in disillusionment for those who place their trust in transparent politics. For instance, Ukraine has borne significant consequences due to such misplaced confidence, as broader geopolitical dynamics overshadow the underlying motivations of those orchestrating these events.
This analysis is not intended to engage in moralising; rather, it is an objective observation. It could even be construed as optimistic, given that catastrophic outcomes are improbable when both parties are guided by mutual economic interests. My perspective is shaped by my background in a country historically situated within the spheres of influence of greater powers. Despite occasionally assertive rhetoric, my nation possesses the capacity for measured and insightful evaluation of international developments.
Recent trends warrant attention. Notably, Poland’s right-wing leader Jarosław Kaczyński recently indicated in an interview that, while he opposes further centralisation within the European Union, federalisation is not objectionable to him. Considering Poland’s reliance on the United States, this may represent an effort to secure its position through alliances perceived as less directly connected to Russia. It is worth recalling that, at least according to statements from Donald Trump, the European Union was purportedly created to weaken the United States. Meanwhile, President Putin appears to regard the EU as a fundamentally malign entity.
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